tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17908317.post469372615943081164..comments2024-03-28T03:15:14.875-07:00Comments on Unenumerated: Polynesians vs. Adam SmithNick Szabohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16820399856274245684noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17908317.post-5734007602139269742009-04-15T17:27:00.000-07:002009-04-15T17:27:00.000-07:00Would you say that if modern Europe had just disco...<I>Would you say that if modern Europe had just discovered America today, that it would be incapable of colonizing it?</I><BR>Obviously I would not say any such thing. Observe that my hypothetical was a fully self-sufficient space colony, like those of some of the remoter and smaller Polynesian islands, not of a space colony per se.<br /><br />First of all, the American colonies were not fully self-sufficient. They imported a wide variety of manufactured goods from Britain and exported a wide variety of wood-derived products, sugar (in the West Indies), cotton, etc. Second and more importantly, as with the South Sea islands settled by the Polynesians, a rich native ecosystem already existed, and it would not have required a modern industrial infrastructure to establish self-sufficient communities, albeit these communities, lacking the manufactured goods of Britain, would have been poorer than the actual American colonies. No such native ecosystem exists beyond earth in our solar system. Modern industrial technologies and materials, based on a vast division of labor, are required to start a colony beyond earth, an a thorough and unimaginably complex redesign of practically every tool and machine to be used on the colony will be needed before it can become even remotely close to self-sufficient. Even then the colony without substantial exports to and imports from earth will be much poorer than earthside developed countries due to the relative lack of division of labor.<br /><br />Thus my conclusion that we won't be setting up any independent economies any time soon -- we have to keep our global economy working here.<br /><br />Your launch cost comment takes us well beyond the scope of my article, but given the history of transportation costs and technologies over the last fifty years, including the many claims to dramatically lower launch costs, and the vast attention and resources that have gone into such efforts, that have all fizzled out, I'm highly skeptical about such predictions. A more promising approach is the road less traveled by futurists: to search for ways to use native space environments to find or do things we can't easily do or find on earth, and then export them to earth in a high value/mass ratio form, in a way that makes money at current launch costs. Currently and for the near future this is limited to obtaining, transmitting, and relaying information, which has practically infinite value/mass. Such businesses will be deeply integrated with earth's economy. They are not likely to be politically autonomous, much less economically self-sufficient.nicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17908317.post-44979962436223704402009-04-14T22:36:00.000-07:002009-04-14T22:36:00.000-07:00Excuse me, "launch costs."Excuse me, "launch costs."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17908317.post-52496519663000152212009-04-14T22:34:00.000-07:002009-04-14T22:34:00.000-07:00Interesting post, odd conclusion. Would you say th...Interesting post, odd conclusion. Would you say that if modern Europe had just discovered America today, that it would be incapable of colonizing it?<br /><br />I suspect not. In more familiar territory, it's clear how colonization really works: not by picking up your entire society and replicating it in one fell swoop, but by a gradual process, involving countless actions by individual players in the market.<br /><br />The same thing will happen for space colonization, once lost costs get cheap enough to make it economical (and there are a number of technologies that could do that).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com